Analysis: Deal Could Save Sri Lanka Truce

BBC News, Geneva

By Ethirijan Anbarasan

A last-minute agreement by Sri Lanka's warring sides to curb violence is seen as a crucial deal which could save the fragile ceasefire but tensions could return if violence continues on the ground.
Prior to the Geneva talks, few were optimistic about the possibility of a deal as both the government and the Tamil Tiger rebels argued from well entrenched positions.

However, both appear to have shown flexibility in accommodating each other's views in the joint statement issued after the talks.

At one point even a joint statement looked unlikely following tense and tough negotiations but Norwegian and Swiss facilitators seemed to have exerted their influence on both sides to reach an agreement.

Describing the outcome as "frankly above my expectations", Norwegian peace envoy Erik Solheim said: "The discussions have been hard, tough and realistic but confidence has been built over the two days".

Key differences

On the opening day, the Sri Lankan government and the Tamil rebels read out lists of hundreds of ceasefire violations blamed on the other side.

The government wanted amendments to the ceasefire agreement itself whereas the rebels insisted on strengthening the implementation of the accord.

However, at the end of the talks, both sides agreed to taking all necessary measures "to stop acts of violence, abductions and killings".

The rebels have promised to stop attacks on the security forces whereas the government has pledged to take necessary steps to act against armed groups that the Tigers say are working with the government security forces against the Tigers.

The Tigers have complained of killings by pro-government Tamil militias.

"We consider this as a diplomatic victory as the government has promised to disarm all other Tamil armed groups," Tamil rebel chief negotiator Anton Balasingham told the BBC.

The issue of renegade rebel commander Colonel Karuna, who broke away from the Tamil Tigers in 2004, threatened to derail the ceasefire.

The Tigers accuse government forces of aiding and abetting Col Karuna, in attacks against the rebels. But the government maintains that it has no knowledge of the existence of the Karuna group.

Killing to stop

At least 120 people - including about 80 soldiers and sailors and many civilians - have died in the upsurge of violence since last December.

Tamil Tiger supporters say more than 40 Tamils have been killed by the security forces in the same period while others blame some of those deaths on the rebels or other armed groups.

From the government point of view, it appears to have secured the an important pledge from the rebels, that there "will be no acts of violence against the security forces and police".

Also, the issue of the alleged recruitment of children by the Tamil rebels have also been included in the joint statement.
"The LTTE [Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam] has agreed to stop all attacks and abductions. And the government has given an understanding that it would also reciprocate in the same manner," head of the government delegation, Nimal Siripala de Silva told the BBC.

Civilian relief

Apart from the pledges, the Geneva meeting and its outcome are being considered crucial as this was the first face-to-face meeting between the two sides in three years.

The two sides have also agreed to meet between 19-21 April again in Geneva to talk about the implementation of the ceasefire agreement.

The talks will also come as much needed relief to civilians in northern and eastern Sri Lanka.

However, analysts say past experience has shown that several promises have been made by both sides but not implemented on the ground leading to a cycle of violence.

"The actual test will be not in the limited agreement reached in Geneva but in the implementation on the ground of the guarantees given by both sides," says Sri Lankan analyst DBS Jeyaraj.

2002 Cease Fire Agreement:http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/1836198.stm