Tigers Tell Of Death, Destruction Under Government Bombardment

Agence France Presse

April 28, 2006

SAMPUR, Sri Lanka - Houses in this rebel-held town were deserted and streets eerily empty on Friday, three days after Sri Lanka’s military pounded it with a fiery blitz that a Tamil Tiger political officer said killed 15 people and injured 25.

Smashed buildings, tangled powerlines and small blood-stained bomb and shell craters gave a hint of the mayhem wreaked during Tuesday’s government strike on the town in Trincomalee district of northeastern Sri Lanka.

Now sheltering at a school in the nearby village of Pattalipuram, residents of Sampur told how they had fled in the night to escape the rain of destruction that fell from the sky.

“It was frightening. It didn’t seem to stop,” said T. Jeyathas, who reached the school with his small family of four at 3:00 am on Wednesday, having walked as fast as they could along dark pathways praying they wouldn’t be hit by a rocket or bomb.

Others told similar stories of their terror in the night and said they were too afraid to return to their homes even though there had been no bombings since Wednesday.

“We’ll wait here till we are sure it is safe,” said Vijay Kumari, who lives in the largest city Colombo but was visiting relatives in Sampur when the attacks began.

Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) political chief from Trincomalee district, S. Elilan, told AFP about 600 rockets and a dozen 500-pound (227-kilogram) bombs fell on Sampur during what he said was a 16-hour assault.

Deaths and destruction

Showing photographs of disfigured corpses trapped in rubble, and of a headless woman lying in the sand still cradling her small dead daughter, he said the government strikes had killed 15 people and injured 25. Another picture showed a cow hit by a rocket.

Nearly 4,700 families -- 17,858 people -- were displaced, he said, adding that only civilians were killed or injured and the toll could have been higher.

“We had advance warnings of the attacks so we warned everyone and they moved to safer places,” he said.

Elilan, unarmed and dressed in civilian clothes, said 26 houses had been destroyed but the final number damaged was still being assessed.

The government strike came from aircraft, multi-barrel rocket launchers and artillery fire, he said at the Tigers’ district political headquarters in Sampur about 80 kilometres (50 miles) from Trincomalee by road but a lot closer by sea.

“The situation is like a war. People are being killed by bombs and artillery fire. You can’t say there’s peace in Sri Lanka anymore,” Elilan said.

The military, saying it was acting in self-defence, launched the strikes after a woman pretending to be pregnant blew herself up at army headquarters in Colombo, about 260 kilometres from Trincomalee, on Tuesday.

The suicide bombing targeted the head of the army, leaving him severely wounded. He was among 30 people hurt while 10 others -- mostly security personnel -- were killed.

Elilan denied the LTTE was behind the suicide bombing and bemoaned the fact the military had struck out at the rebels, saying it was a violation of the ceasefire the two sides signed in 2002.

Asked if the LTTE was planning to retaliate, Elilan did not answer directly but said: “Because of the attack in Colombo, 15 Tamils died and thousands have been displaced. We have no safeguards for Tamils. We have to look after our own protection. We are only fighting for freedom of Tamils.”

Three decades of ethnic bloodshed in Sri Lanka have claimed more than 60,000 lives. The Tigers are fighting for a homeland for their minority community.

Foreign donors were to meet Friday in Oslo in a bid to save the four-year-old ceasefire under severe strain after the latest violence.

Nepal MPs Begin Historic Session

BBC News

April 28, 2006

The Nepalese parliament has held its first meeting in four years in the capital, Kathmandu. King Gyanendra reinstated the assembly on 24 April in a bid to end almost three weeks of nationwide protests in which at least 14 people died.

But newly appointed Prime Minister, octogenarian Girija Prasad Koirala, was too ill to attend.

Mr Koirala, a veteran politician, was appointed by King Gyanendra on Thursday, but has a lung infection.

The former prime minister and current head of the Nepali Congress party was the choice of the coalition of seven political parties which led the campaign for the king to restore democracy.

'Gratitude'

A large crowd gathered outside parliament, urging the MPs to draw up a new constitution.

Proceedings inside began with a two- minute silence for the 14 people killed during the protests.

"We express our gratitude to those who died in the democracy struggle," deputy speaker Chitra Lekha Yadav said.

"What we've achieved is really admirable - to go on united is what we need." Prime Minister Koirala's absence from proceedings was, medical sources said, due to an unspecified lung problem.

Mr Koirala sent a message to MPs instructing them to press ahead with plans for a constituent assembly, one of the key demands of Nepal's main political parties and also the country's Maoist rebels.

The session of the lower house of parliament lasted for just over half-an-hour before adjourning. The upper house has still to meet.

'Much to prove'

The king dissolved parliament in May 2002 after it failed to renew a state of emergency imposed to fight the rebels.

The BBC's Dan Isaacs says the politicians have much to prove to their supporters after years of bickering and infighting.

They face two key tasks - to restart a dialogue with the Maoists as a prelude to drawing them into the political process, and to address the issue of elections to a constituent assembly which could debate and draw up a new constitution.

What this would mean for the future of the monarchy is not clear.

Our correspondent says there is little popular support for anything more than a ceremonial monarchy emerging from that process.

But this would require fundamental compromises on all sides, including from the Maoists, who since 1996 have conducted a violent campaign for an end to the monarchy.

The Maoists staged their own demonstration in Kathmandu on Friday.

There was no sign of police or army units at the rally. Maoist leaders spoke to about 2,000 supporters and onlookers.

On Thursday the Maoists announced a three-month unilateral truce.

Leader Prachanda said in a statement that the group would refrain from "offensive military action" for a three-month period, but remain in an "active defensive position".

He said he hoped the ceasefire would encourage the formation of a new constituent assembly given the job of rewriting the constitution.

How Kaavya Got Packaged And Got Into Trouble

Slate.com

Plagiarism and the teen-marketing culture.

By Ann Hulbert

Thursday, April 27, 2006

"Is it hard work being a poser?" One of the Haute Bitchez at Woodcliff High School puts that taunting question to Opal Mehta, the protagonist of the teen novel by Harvard sophomore Kaavya Viswanathan, whose confession this week that she unconsciously plagiarized the work of the best-selling young-adult author Megan McCafferty has stirred controversy. The dig comes near the end of How Opal Mehta Got Kissed, Got Wild, and Got a Life when Opal's parent-driven self-packaging mission has been revealed to the entire high school. As her peers now know (from a tell-all Treo that she dropped), the senior has been devoting her fall semester to a marketing plan that the Mehtas fondly refer to by the acronym HOWGAL, How Opal Will Get A Life—a plan geared toward turning a science grind into a glamour girl. Heretofore she had been doggedly pursuing a more conventional marketing plan, HOWGIH, How Opal Will Get Into Harvard. The inspiration for the strategic swerve is Harvard's dean of admissions himself, who, at Opal's August interview, suggests that a girl who has been engineered since birth to be a super high-achiever needs to "Have fun. … Find out what you're really passionate about." Harvard doesn't want "automatons." By the January application deadline, he says, come back and "show us what a well-rounded candidate you've become. Sound good?"

More:http://www.slate.com/id/2140683/?nav=tap3

Setting Grandmotherhood Aside, Judge Lets 18 Go In Peace

The New York Times

April 28, 2006

By ANEMONA HARTOCOLLIS

They came, they shuffled, they conquered.

Eighteen "grannies" who were swept up by the New York City police, handcuffed, loaded into police vans and jailed for four and a half hours were acquitted yesterday of charges that they blocked the entrance to the military recruitment center in Times Square when they tried to enlist.

After six days of a nonjury trial, the grandmothers and dozens of their supporters filled a courtroom in Manhattan Criminal Court to hear whether they would be found guilty of two counts of disorderly conduct for refusing to move, which could have put them in jail for 15 days. The women call their group the Granny Peace Brigade and said they wanted to join the armed forces and thus offer their lives for those of younger soldiers in Iraq.

The women — from 59 to 91, many gray-haired, some carrying canes, one legally blind, one with a walker — listened gravely and in obvious suspense as Judge Neil E. Ross delivered a carefully worded 15-minute speech in which he said his verdict was not a referendum on the Police Department, the defendants' antiwar message or, indeed, their very grandmotherhood.

But, he said, there was credible evidence that the grandmothers had left room for people to enter the recruitment center, and that therefore they had been wrongly arrested.

He then pronounced them not guilty, concluding. "The defendants are all discharged."

The women, sitting in the jury box at the invitation of the judge, to make it easier for them to see and hear, let out a collective "Oh!" and burst into applause, rushing forward, as quickly as women their age could rush, to hug and kiss their lawyers, Norman Siegel, the former head of the New York Civil Liberties Union, and Earl Ward.

"Listen to your granny, she knows best," crowed Joan Wile, 74, a retired cabaret singer and jingle writer who was one of the defendants.

Outside the courthouse minutes later, the women burst into their unofficial anthem, "God Help America," composed by Kay Sather, a member of a sister group in Arizona, the Raging Grannies of Tucson, which goes, "God help America, We need you bad, 'cause our leaders are cheaters, and they're making the world really mad."

The trial was extraordinary, if only because it gave 18 impassioned women — some of whom dated their political activism to the execution of Ethel and Julius Rosenberg — a chance to testify at length about their antiwar sentiments and their commitment to free speech and dissent, in a courtroom that attracted reporters from France and Germany.

Despite the judge's demurrals, the verdict was one in a series of victories for protesters who have been arrested by the New York police since the invasion of Iraq.

While more than 300 people were detained for minor offenses during demonstrations at the 2004 Republican National Convention, few were convicted. Also, earlier this year, a state judge rejected the city's efforts to quash Critical Mass, a monthly bicycle rally in Manhattan.

"I was sure we were sunk," said Lillian Rydell, 86, a defendant who testified during the trial that she went to "the school of hard knocks," instead of college.

"I love everybody," she said. The defendants called themselves "grannies" because they are all old enough to be grandmothers, even if some of them are not, and because in their view, grandmothers are a core American value, as patriotic as mom and apple pie.

Essentially, Judge Ross had found himself with grandmotherhood on trial in his courtroom. He seemed to acknowledge his dilemma when he said, in his decision, "This case is not a referendum on future actions at the location in question, on police tactics nor the age of the defendants or the content of their message."

He said he did not fault the police for making a decision in the heat of the moment to arrest the women last October, but he said that as a judge, he had the "luxury of time and hindsight" in which to consider events.

Before the verdict yesterday, both sides delivered their closing arguments.

The youthful prosecutor, Artie McConnell, allowed that it would be foolish of him to "cross swords" with a veteran civil liberties lawyer like Mr. Siegel on the First Amendment. "Luckily for me," he said, "I don't have to, because that's not what this case is about."

The case, he continued, was about breaking the law. "These defendants do not get a pass for who they are, no matter how noble their cause may be," he said.

If Mr. McConnell stuck to prose, Mr. Siegel did not hesitate to offer poetry. The defendants, he said in his closing, "tried to alert an apathetic public to the immorality, the illegality, the destructiveness and the wrongness of the war in Iraq." The grannies could not be punished for failing to obey a police command if that command violated their constitutional right to protest, he said.

When it was over, the grannies seemed ready to do it again. "The decision today says the First Amendment protects you to protest peacefully," Mr. Siegel said, addressing his clients outside the courthouse after the verdict. "So — go do it!"

And the grannies cheered.

Copyright 2006 The New York Times Company

Musharraf Insists: I'm Not George Bush's Poodle

Guardian

April 28, 2006

Exclusive interview

· General says US air strikes infringe sovereignty
· President denies running military dictatorship

Declan Walsh and Simon Tisdall in Rawalpindi

General Pervez Musharraf, facing a surge of anti-American sentiment, yesterday warned that covert US air strikes against al-Qaida inside Pakistan were an infringement of national sovereignty. Admitting that his popularity was waning, the Pakistani president insisted he was "not a poodle" of George Bush and rejected accusations he was running a military dictatorship.

Speaking to the Guardian at Army House in Rawalpindi weeks after a tense visit by the US president that brought a torrent of domestic criticism, Gen Musharraf insisted he was his own man.

"When you are talking about fighting terrorism or extremism, I'm not doing that for the US or Britain. I'm doing it for Pakistan," he said. "It's not a question of being a poodle. I'm nobody's poodle. I have enough strength of my own to lead."

If necessary he had "teeth" to bite back, he added. "Yes sir, I personally do. A lot of teeth. Sometimes the teeth do not have to be shown. Pragmatism is required in international relations."

Gen Musharraf pledged to hold free and fair elections next year as urged by Mr Bush during his visit to Islamabad last month. Opposition parties fear the poll, which government officials claim will be the most open since Gen Musharraf seized power in 1999, will be rigged.

"It is ironic that I'm sitting in uniform talking of democracy ... but to bring democracy into Pakistan I thought I needed it," he said.

An American Predator drone fired Hellfire missiles at a house in Bajaur tribal agency in January, killing 18 people but missing their target, al-Qaida's second in command, Ayman al-Zawahiri. The attack near the Afghan border caused public uproar and brought renewed accusations that Gen Musharraf was a US puppet.

Local journalist Hayatullah Khan, who photographed missile fragments linking the strikes to the US, disappeared four days later and is still missing. A western diplomat said he was probably being held by Pakistani intelligence and may have been mistreated.

The strike underlined tensions in the anti-terror alliance between Pakistan and the US, which has also been strained by Washington's nuclear deal with India, its insistence on democratic reforms, and alleged American meddling in the sprawling south-western province of Baluchistan. "The strike was an infringement of our sovereignty and I condemned it," said Gen Musharraf.

Pakistan also faces criticism from the US and Afghanistan for not doing enough to flush extremists from its tribal areas. Mr Bush said he had come to Islamabad "to determine whether or not the president is as committed as he has been in the past to bringing these terrorists to justice".

Gen Musharraf insisted yesterday there was no question of Pakistan submitting to American scrutiny and said claims that his government acted at Washington's bidding were nonsense. "There is no need of any checks - that is the reality," he said.

Gen Musharraf, who faces revolts in Baluchistan and along the Afghan border, admitted to feeling embattled. He added that there was a growing problem of "Talibanisation" in Waziristan, a troubled tribal area where several hundred al-Qaida suspects have been killed.

The battle against al-Qaida was almost won in Waziristan, he said. "Because of our successes in the cities where we got 600-700 of them, and then in the mountains where we occupied their sanctuaries, thankfully they are on the run."

But a new form of local fundamentalism was taking its place in Waziristan, which is ruled directly from Islamabad under colonial-era laws. "Extremism in a Talibanised form is what people are now going for. Mullah Omar and the Taliban have influence in Waziristan and it's spilling over into our settled areas."

This week militants occupied a market in the regional capital, Miran Shah, for several hours, burning newspapers and threatening local people. Two taxi drivers accused of collaborating with coalition forces in nearby Afghanistan were found beheaded. More than 150 pro-government elders and officials have been killed in the past year.

Gen Musharraf defended his tactic of using military force instead of negotiation to quell the violence and said some collateral damage was inevitable when militants' hideouts were attacked.

"We take extreme care to be 100% sure of the target from all sources of intelligence ... There is minimum collateral damage. If someone happens to be very close to [the target], that somebody is an abetter and they suffer the loss. Sometimes, indeed, women and children have been killed but they have been right next to the place. It's not that the strike was inaccurate but they happen to be there, so therefore they are all supporters and abetters of terrorism - and therefore they have to suffer. It's bad luck," he said.

Gen Musharraf also played down unrest in the resource-rich province of Baluchistan, where nationalist militants are blowing up gas pipelines and trains and attacking army positions. He described the rebels as "mercenaries" and their attacks as "pin pricks", and said the disturbances were confined to one-twentieth of the province's area.

"So what revolt are you talking about? People talk about an East Pakistan situation," he said, referring to the secession of Bangladesh in 1971. "I understand strategy. These people are pygmies."

Criticism of his military-driven strategy came from "people who sit in drawing rooms and talk", he said, but added that a political solution was also being sought.

Gen Musharraf has survived two assassination attempts but elections scheduled for next year are expected to pose the greatest threat yet to his grip on power. Overt and behind-the-scenes US and British pressure for a free poll has become another friction point in the west's relationship with Islamabad.

The leaders of the two main opposition parties, Benazir Bhutto of the Pakistan Peoples party and Nawaz Sharif of the Pakistan Muslim League, are in exile and face arrest if they return home. Meeting in London this week they launched a fresh political alliance and called for western support.

Gen Musharraf said his mission was to democratise Pakistan. "My popularity has gone down ... but at this moment my country needs me. I've put a strong constitutional democratic system in place. That will throw up a successor. I'm a strong believer in democracy."

Backstory

Pervez Musharraf seized power in a bloodless coup in 1999 when he was head of the country's armed forces, forcing the country's elected prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, into exile in Saudi Arabia. Initial international condemnation faded after September 2001, when Gen Musharraf dropped his support for the Taliban and threw his weight behind the US-led "war on terror". He has since become a key ally in the west's hunt for al-Qaida extremists but his popularity has plummeted due to widespread anti-American sentiment. In December 2003 he survived two al-Qaida assassination attempts in two weeks. Gen Musharraf attempted to legitimise his rule through elections in 2002 that observers described as deeply flawed. A self-described liberal, he has introduced some social reforms but also allied himself with hardline religious parties when necessary. Last year he advanced the peace process with India through "cricket diplomacy".

Guardian Unlimited © Guardian Newspapers Limited 2006

Women Risk Rape, Death In U.S Journey

The Associated Press

April 27, 2006

More Women Are Jumping the Border From Mexico, Risking Rape and Death for a Life in the U.S.

By JULIE WATSON

NOGALES, Mexico - Swaddled in dirt in the inky night, the newborn trembled as a stranger struggled to snip her umbilical cord with nail clippers. A smuggler and other migrants had bolted when the baby's 18-year-old mother screamed with labor pains.

But Lilia Ortiz couldn't just leave them in the harsh Arizona desert. Ortiz, 23, had walked two days straight to get this far. But she knew what it was like to struggle as a mother on her own.

The two women are part of a new wave of migrants. A decade ago, illegal migration was dominated by men. Now more women are making the journey, risking rape and even death to support their families.

The increase in women migrants comes as beefed-up border security has funneled migrants through one of the world's most forbidding deserts, and as smugglers adopt increasingly violent tactics.

Some cross with their children. Others leave them behind with relatives. Pregnant women, like the one who gave birth this week, walk for days through the desert in the hope that their children will have a better life as U.S. citizens.

Rape has become so prevalent that many women take birth control pills or shots before setting out to ensure they won't get pregnant. Some consider rape "the price you pay for crossing the border," said Teresa Rodriguez, regional director of the U.N. Development Fund for Women.

If caught by the U.S. Border Patrol, women are often deported to Mexico's violent border towns in the middle of the night, despite a 1996 agreement between the two countries that promised women and children would only be returned in daylight hours, according to directors of migrant shelters along the 2,000-mile border.

Worldwide, nearly half of the estimated 180 million migrants are women, according to a report released in February by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean.

A study released last week by U.S. and Mexican migration experts, partly funded by the Mexican government, found that nearly half of all Mexican migrants living in the United States are women.

The female migrants are getting younger. Of migrants under 18 deported to Mexico, females accounted for only 2 percent in 1994, when the U.S. started cracking down at the border. Since 2002, they have made up nearly a third each year, said Blanca Villasenor, who recently published a book on Mexico's female migrants.

"It's very significant because it shows the country is losing its potential its youth, its reproductive force," said Villasenor, who runs a youth shelter in Mexicali on the California border.

Central American women face even more danger because they must first cross Mexico, where gangs and even immigration officials have attacked women, said Jesus Aguilar, a migrant rights activist in El Salvador.

"The normal rule, according to women who migrate, is that before leaving their countries they have to take the pill for at least one to three months to ensure that they will not get pregnant after a rape," said Aguilar, of the group Carecen Internacional.
Many Central Americans crossing Mexico hop cargo trains, where Aguilar said "there's almost a 99 percent chance that a woman will get raped."

"The risk of rape is very high, not only by smugglers or by men in their same group, but also by criminals on public buses or on the cargo trains," he said.

Waiting with a smuggler for darkness in the popular jumping-off point of Sasabe, across the Arizona border, Gisela Anzures fiddled with a purple scrunchie on her wrist Tuesday and said she had heard the horror stories.

"It's very dangerous. The gangs show up and pat you down in a horrible way," said Anzures, a 28-year-old divorced accountant who left her 5-year-old son with her parents in Cuernavaca. "It's no great pleasure to do this, but I'm fed up with the long hours and low pay in Mexico."

Twenty-five miles to the north, a U.S. Border Patrol helicopter had spotted Ortiz, her aunt, the 18-year-old new mother and her baby a day earlier. After being abandoned in the desert by their smuggler, they were glad to be rescued.

Ortiz and her aunt were returned by the Border Patrol to Nogales, where they vowed to try again. The mother and newborn were recovering at a hospital in Tucson, Ariz., and were listed in good condition; Ortiz said she didn't know the mother's name and U.S. authorities would not release it.

Border Patrol agents in southern Arizona the busiest crossing area come across a birth in the desert about once a year. Last fall, a baby was born in a Border Patrol helicopter as it flew the mother to a hospital.

Collapsed on a bunk bed at a Nogales shelter, Ortiz rubbed her legs, which were covered with cactus thorns. She said she left her abusive husband after Hurricane Stan swept away her family's home in Chiapas last fall, and decided to head north. Friends in Florida had promised to help her get work.

"I have a 6-month-old girl, and I'm a single mother," she said. "I feel sad and desperate. I have no money and haven't been able to get work at home, and now I can't get to the other side."

Ortiz said she would try the crossing again in hopes of a better life for her daughter who is now staying another aunt.

With a glimmer of envy, she said the pregnant woman had been trying to do the same thing.

It worked. Her baby daughter is now a U.S. citizen.

Associated Press writer Diego Mendez contributed to this report from San Salvador.

Staggering Back Towards War

The Economist

April 26, 2006

A suicide bomb attack against Sri Lanka’s army chief and retaliatory air strikes against rebels have killed several people and heightened fears of renewed war. A formal ceasefire between Tamil separatists and the government had already been looking ragged. It now looks all but broken. Some reports suggest tens of thousands of people are fleeing into the jungle to avoid more attacks in the north of the country

IT WAS exactly the news that Nordic peace monitors, and ordinary Sri Lankans, were dreading. On Tuesday April 25th, a suicide bomber struck the army’s heavily-fortified headquarters in the capital, Colombo. She was a member of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, a militant movement that seeks an independent state for the mainly Hindu Tamils of the north and east. The explosion wounded the country’s hawkish army chief, Sarath Fonseka, injured many others and killed a number of his bodyguards. It was the latest in a string of tit-for-tat murders over the past few months that have placed strain on a ceasefire deal signed in 2002.

Tuesday’s attack was probably the final straw for the government, whose retaliation was swift. The same day, and again on Wednesday, airforce planes supported by naval artillery pulverised rebel positions near the northern port of Trincomalee. On Wednesday a local leader said the retaliatory bombing had forced tens of thousands of people to flee towards the relative safety of the jungle. At least 12 civilians were reported killed. The strikes have been called the first “official” military action since 2002, and some say there is great pressure on the government to restart the war. But the government denies breaking the ceasefire and says steps must be taken to prevent further Tiger attacks.

Much of the latest violence has taken place in the multi-ethnic east of the island, a region claimed by the Tigers but dominated by the mainly Buddhist Sinhalese majority. Communal tensions there have worsened in the past few weeks, following a spate of landmine blasts against Sri Lankan soldiers and revenge attacks by Sinhalese mobs on Tamil villagers. These have left more than 100 people dead, many of them soldiers.

It all puts pressure on the Norwegian-brokered ceasefire. After the devastating tsunami in December 2004 some dared hope that the government and rebels might try co-operating, as happened after the wave struck a separatist province in Indonesia. Instead, Sri Lanka’s antagonists soon fell out over the distribution of aid money. The Tigers apparently used the lull after the tsunami to rearm and regroup. Last August they struck in the most provocative way by shooting dead the foreign minister, Lakshman Kadirgamar, an ethnic Tamil reviled by nationalists as a traitor, in his garden.

The truce has since been unravelling. An election in November that was boycotted by the Tigers produced a hardline Sinhalese president, Mahinda Rajapakse. His main coalition partners, a Buddhist party led by monks and a Sinhalese chauvinist group with Marxist views, want the ceasefire redrafted or scrapped. They also want Norway dropped as a peacebroker.

Increasingly the government and rebels have been waging a shadow war. This week’s events continue on from earlier violence. An agreement in February to shore up the truce was broken as soon as the ink had dried. The government said the Tigers had attacked its soldiers. The rebels said the army encouraged paramilitaries, led by a renegade Tiger commander, to attack its forces in the east. More negotiations are proposed, but every excuse is used to block them. Bickering over a meeting between eastern-based rebels and the Tiger leadership in the north put paid to peace talks this month.

But not yet doomed to fight?

The Tigers, for their part, have threatened retaliation if the air strikes continue. Some of them think the government plans a large military offensive to take full control of the east. That would, say some in Colombo, leave the government in an advantageous position of strength for future talks. Yet even such thinking keeps alive the idea of some sort of peace.

Any hope that war may yet be postponed rests on the fact that each side seems to be trying hard to pose as a victim, not an aggressor. Mr Rajapakse, though pushed by his hardline coalition partners to keep military pressure on the Tigers, does not want to be abandoned by the outside world. Nor do the Tamils want to be seen as the main stumbling block to peace. As the earlier war dragged on from the 1983 until 2002, many outsiders threw up their hands, leaving investors, donors and tourists to go elsewhere. Rather than be left to butcher each other this time around, the sides may yet see advantage in letting limited violence continue without lurching into full-scale battles.

Copyright © 2006 The Economist Newspaper and The Economist Group. All rights reserved.

1,000 Secret CIA Flights Revealed

Guardian

April 27, 2006

· MEPs' report says member states knew of abductions
· Documents show 'strange routes' and stopovers

Richard Norton-Taylor

The CIA has operated more than 1,000 secret flights over EU territory in the past five years, some to transfer terror suspects in a practice known as "extraordinary rendition", an investigation by the European parliament said yesterday.

The figure is significantly higher than previously thought. EU parliamentarians who conducted the investigation concluded that incidents when terror suspects were handed over to US agents did not appear to be isolated. They said the suspects were often transported around Europe on the same planes by agents whose names repeatedly came up in their investigation.

They accused the CIA of kidnapping terror suspects and said those responsible for monitoring air safety regulations revealed unusual flight paths to and from European airports. The report's author, Italian MEP Claudio Fava, suggested some EU governments knew about the flights.

He suggested flight plans and airport logs made it hard to believe that many of the stopovers were refuelling missions. "The CIA has, on several occasions, clearly been responsible for kidnapping and illegally detaining alleged terrorists on the territory of [EU] member states, as well as for extraordinary renditions," said Mr Fava, a member of the European parliament's socialist group.

His report, the first interim report by EU parliamentarians on rendition, obtained data from Eurocontrol, the European air safety agency, and gathered information during three months of hearings and more than 50 hours of testimony by individuals who said they were kidnapped and tortured by American agents, as well as EU officials and human rights groups.

"After 9/11, within the framework of the fight against terrorism, the violation of human and fundamental rights was not isolated or an excessive measure confined to a short period of time, but rather a widespread regular practice in which the majority of European countries were involved," said Mr Fava.

Data showed that CIA planes made numerous secret stopovers on European territory, violating an international air treaty that requires airlines to declare the route and stopovers for planes with a police mission, he said. "The routes for some of these flights seem to be quite suspect. ... They are rather strange routes for flights to take. It is hard to imagine ... those stopovers were simply for providing fuel."

Mr Fava referred to the alleged abduction of Egyptian cleric Abu Omar by CIA agents in a Milan street in 2003, to Khalid al-Masri, who was transferred from Macedonia to Afghanistan, and the transfer of a Canadian citizen, Maher Arar, from New York to Syria, among other incidents.

Documents provided by Eurocontrol showed that Mr Masri was transported to Afghanistan in 2004 by a plane that originated in Algeria and flew via Palma de Mallorca in Spain, Skopje in Macedonia, and Baghdad before landing in Kabul, Afghanistan.

Mr Fava's committee did not report on secret prisons, but he said EU parliamentarians intended to visit Romania and Poland where, it is suspected, the CIA had secret interrogation camps.

The Bush administration has admitted to secret rendition flights but says it does not condone torture. Jack Straw, the foreign secretary, says he has no evidence that the US used British airspace or airports to transfer detainees and that he believes Washington would have told the government if it had plans to do so.

Extraordinary renditions would breach European human rights legislation and British domestic law.

Guardian Unlimited © Guardian Newspapers Limited 2006

Nepalese Rebels Declare Three-Month Truce After Ending Blockade

Bloomberg

April 27 (Bloomberg) -- Rebels in Nepal declared a three- month cease-fire after ending a blockade of Kathmandu imposed to support a two-week general strike that forced King Gyanendra to reinstate Parliament.

The truce is to help the ``people's struggle'' for a new assembly to be elected to draft a new constitution, Pushpa Kamal Dahal, the rebel leader known as Prachanda, said in a statement issued late yesterday, Nepalnews.com reported.

The cease-fire will come into effect immediately and will allow political parties to arrange for elections for the new assembly, Prachanda said.

King Gyanendra imposed a state of emergency in February 2005 after dismissing the government for failing to control a 10-year insurgency by rebels fighting to replace the monarchy with a communist republic. Protests organized by a seven-party opposition alliance culminated in this month's general strike and rallies that brought daily confrontations between demonstrators and security forces.

The king said in an national address three days ago that Parliament will convene on April 28.

The rebel Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) supported the protests by blockading main roads in the country. It ended the road blocks yesterday after an appeal by Girija Prasad Koirala, president of the Nepali Congress, Nepal's largest party and a member of the opposition alliance.

The opposition has nominated Koirala as prime minister of an interim government that will be installed when Parliament meets.

King's Powers

The opposition parties and the rebels reached an agreement last November to press for democracy and curb the powers of the king. The insurgency in the Himalayan kingdom of 27 million people has cost the lives of 13,000 people since 1996.

The country's constitution was changed in 1990, creating a multiparty system, further weakening the power of the monarchy after the introduction of a non-party political system in 1960.

State-of-emergency regulations introduced in 2005 restricted political parties and the media and were denounced by the international community led by the United Nations, the U.S. and neighboring India. King Gyanendra said at the time he would hold parliamentary elections by April 2007.

Nepal's economy, which depends on tourism for foreign exchange, has been damaged by the strike and the insurgency. Agriculture accounts for 40 percent of gross domestic product and provides a livelihood for 80 percent of Nepal's population. An estimated 40 percent of Nepalese live below the poverty line.

The country is home to Mount Everest, the tallest peak, which attracts climbers from around the world and is reputed to be the birthplace of the Buddha.

To contact the reporter for this story:
Paul Tighe in Sydney at ptighe@bloomberg.net

Sri Lanka: Ethnic Melting Pot On The Boil

Agence France Presse

Sri Lanka's Tamil separatist conflict is rooted in the nation's history, but the past three decades have been the bloodiest on an island colonised by Europeans and invaded by Indians.

At least 60,000 people have been killed since minority Tamils took up arms in 1972, about 24 years after the Indian Ocean island won independence from Britain.

The British, the last in a long line of imperialists, dominated the island for 133 years with a policy of "divide and rule" among the majority Sinhalese and ethnic Tamils.

Moves by the Sinhalese to retake key state jobs that had been controlled by the better-educated Tamils brought communal tensions into the open. But folk stories have long been told of ancient wars between Tamil and Sinhala kings.

Many believe the state policy of adopting Sinhalese as the official national language while, at the same time, dropping both English and Tamil as a turning point in the chequered history of the island.

"The conflict possibly started in 1956 when we adopted the Sinhala-only policy," said retired airforce chief Harry Gunatillake. "From there onwards, we have gone down hill."

In 1972 a disgruntled Tamil school dropout, Velupillai Prabhakaran, formed the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), or Tamil Tigers, who were to become one of the world's most ruthlessly efficient guerrilla organisations, known for trademark suicide bombings.

Tamils have long claimed that they were discriminated against in education and jobs. Equal opportunity legislation has been put in place, but its implementation has been slow and inadequate.

Tamil discontent, which had traditionally been expressed in small-scale unrest, turned into a full-scale guerrilla war after a 1983 anti-Tamil riot left 400 to 600 people, mostly Tamils, dead on the streets.

Unofficial figures suggest up to 60,000 people may have been killed in ethnic clashes over the past three decades.

The Sinhalese are mostly Buddhists while the Tamils are Hindus but religion has not played a role in the long conflict.

The majority Sinhalese trace their origins back to a North Indian prince, Vijaya, whose father banished him for disobedience. Vijaya is said to have taken a native princess of the yaksha or demon tribe as his wife and together they gave birth to the Sinhalese race.

After being colonised by the Portuguese, the Dutch, and later the British, many Sinhalese have mixed European blood.

Arabs, who controlled the old trade routes between the east and west, also came to Sri Lanka in search of cinnamon and ended up marrying local women.

Their descendants, known as Sri Lanka Muslims, make up 7.5 percent of the 19.5 million population. They are the second largest minority after Tamils who make up 12.5 percent of the population.

In the 5th and 6th centuries Tamils arrived in Sri Lanka from neighbouring India, but they fought many wars with the kings who ruled the island's different provinces.

The "Sri Lankan Tamils" are distinct from the Tamil labourers imported much later from the subcontinent by the British in the 19th century to work on their plantations.

The British left Ceylon, the name they gave the island, in 1948 but their divide and rule policies left a legacy of ethnic conflict.

In December 2002 a peace deal brokered by Norway, a country with no role in the island's colonial past, was agreed. The two sides said they would settle for a federal state but that agreement has never moved forward.

Copyright © 2006 Agence France Presse

Race To Save Sri Lanka Ceasefire

BBC News

April 27, 2006

Truce monitors have travelled to Trincomalee in north-east Sri Lanka to try to ease tension after two days of government air strikes on Tamil rebels. The strikes were called after a suicide bombing on army headquarters in Colombo on Tuesday left at least eight dead and the army chief seriously wounded.

The Tamil Tiger rebels called the air strikes "genocidal" and said tens of thousands had fled their homes.

The violence has cast serious doubts on the future of the 2002 ceasefire.

On Thursday, the government said it was banning all public rallies and demonstrations within Colombo with immediate effect.

Crossing points

There have been no new government attacks since the air strikes on Tuesday and Wednesday.

However, both sides have threatened to retaliate further if they are attacked.

On Thursday, a mine blast in the Kayts islet in the north's Jaffna peninsula killed two navy sailors but a government military spokesman said this would not spark new air strikes.

The head of the international truce monitoring team, Ulf Henricsson, is in Trincomalee and is planning to visit the area where the air strikes took place.

The BBC's Dumeetha Luthra in Colombo says the monitors believe the break in violence offers a glimmer of hope.

The government has reopened crossing points into the Tamil Tiger-held areas that were sealed off after the bombing on Tuesday.

BBC correspondent Soutik Biswas has now reached Trincomalee after a 270km (170 mile) journey from Colombo on a road with little traffic but a heavy military presence.

The leading peace mediator, Norway's International Development Minister Erik Solheim, said from Oslo he did not believe the violence signalled an end to the February 2002 ceasefire.

"We are working with the parties on an hour-to-hour basis to do whatever possible to bring them back to the negotiating table," he said.

The Tamil Tigers say more than 40,000 people were displaced as refugees after the latest air strikes.

Lyndon Jeffels, spokesman for the UN refugee agency, could not confirm that figure, but said: "Certainly it seems that there is a very significant displacement."

Humanitarian workers were confined to their homes, he said.

On Thursday President Mahinda Rajapakse announced the government was setting aside $1m to bring "essential supplies" to those displaced by violence in the region.

Ambassadors from the nation's main donors have met Mr Rajapakse in the wake of the violence and called for restraint.

The ban on rallies in Colombo was imposed to ensure the safety of the general public, the government said.

Colombo attack

The Tigers say more than 12 civilians were killed in the air strikes - the first official military action since the 2002 truce - but the government denies civilians were targeted.

The Tigers expressed "distress and dissatisfaction" at the international community's "absence of concern" over the attacks. The suicide attack in Colombo was apparently carried out by a woman who made herself appear heavily pregnant to conceal explosives.

In addition to the dead, army chief Lt Gen Sarath Fonseka was seriously wounded.

The rebels have denied being behind recent bomb attacks, although experts believe the Colombo bombing bears all the hallmarks of the Tigers.

The Tigers began their armed campaign for a separate homeland for the island's Tamil minority in the north and east in the 1970s.

More than 64,000 people have died in the conflict.

The rebels last week pulled out of peace negotiations in Geneva, accusing the government of attacks on ethnic Tamil civilians.

Sri Lanka: Asian Human Rights Commission Statement

Asian Human Rights Commission - Statement

SRI LANKA: Sri Lanka faces a problem far greater than the escalation of violence

April 26, 2006

Violence is escalating in Sri Lanka, with an attack by a suicide bomber in Colombo on the army headquarters that has seriously injured the army commander and killed many others. In retaliation, the Government of Sri Lanka has ordered air and naval attacks on LTTE strongholds. The international media is announcing a “return to war” in response to this escalation of violence. The lower level of violence that prevailed during the cease fire is now being pushed higher. However, the problem Sri Lanka faces is much worse than a mere escalation of violence. A country that is already facing a collapse of its basic institutions and living at the lowest ebb of the rule of law is now plunging deeper into an abysmal crisis in all areas of life. The Asian Human Rights Commission (AHRC) has warned of this situation for a long time.

The fragile cease fire was all that could be achieved against a background of intense violence that has prevailed in the country for almost three decades. Sri Lanka has been the stage of one of the most brutal killing fields, with hardly any avenues for democratic debate or democratic solutions to any problems. In fact, no one really talks of democracy any more, or sees the ethnic conflict or other conflicts existing in the country through a democratic perspective. All sides to the conflict have nothing and no one to talk to. Everyone is trying to make their point in the most violent way possible.

The AHRC has consistently pointed out that the crisis in Sri Lanka is a crisis of democracy, with its roots in the authoritarian style of rule that arose as a result of the 1978 Constitution. The abandonment of a basic democratic infrastructure that was accepted as the foundation of the country’s governance at the beginning of independence met with hardly any resistance in the late 1970s and 1980s. The architect of the 1978 Constitution was an aged politician who had no other ambition than to rule for the rest of his life, like colonial governor generals or ancient monarchs. That the displacement of all basic democratic norms and standards and of the respect for institutions brought about by this constitution would damage the country for a long time to come was none of his concerns. The crisis has deepened since that time, without tangible efforts on the part of other political parties or civil society for the construction of the country on the basis of democracy.

The ethnic conflict developed into a killing competition as a result of the initial collapse of democratic safeguards. In turn, long years of violence have deteriorated democracy further. In the early years, there were some forms of resistance on the part of the judiciary and some liberal elements, but over the years everyone has become adjusted to the authoritarian scheme. While there is a lot of expression of frustration and grief about what has taken place in the country in citizens of all classes’ private conversations, there has been no growth of a strong movement within the country to fight back and to reassert democracy.

Those who have talked about peace, including the international agencies that have taken an active role in recent years, have seen “the ethnic conflict” in isolation and made no attempt to link it to the greater crisis existing within the system of governance, which affects the entire country. The belief that the ethnic issue can in some way be resolved while democracy in the country has decayed has not been seen as an absurd proposition. However, the absurdity of the situation is now manifesting itself, as the violence escalates.

This simply demonstrates that mere “peace talks” without a comprehensive programme for democratic reform throughout the country are just an illusion. As violence escalates, corruption will also increase and already inefficient state structures will degenerate further. In the absence of internal capacities to control crime, corruption and to move towards stability, violence can only engender further forms of destruction and decay.

Although this scene is disheartening, it must be faced. The rhetoric of war and focus on attacks and counter-attacks will on dissimulate this stark reality. Once again, if there is any possibility of a rescue, it lies not in the hands of politicians, but in the hands of enlightened civil society groups, if they care to and are willing to make their presence felt by calling for fundamental democratic reforms in all areas of life. Only in comprehensive democratic reform can we find hope for the country. This lesson is once again appearing high in the skies of Sri Lanka. The AHRC urges all Sri Lankans and members of the international community who care for stability and the safeguarding of lives and liberty, to link the thinking on Sri Lanka to the need for achieving comprehensive democratic reforms in the country as soon as possible.

# # #

About AHRC The Asian Human Rights Commission is a regional non-governmental organisation monitoring and lobbying human rights issues in Asia. The Hong Kong-based group was founded in 1984.

Thousands Flee New Violence In Sri Lanka

The Associated Press

April 26, 2006

Sri Lankan Military Strikes Rebel Bases; at Least 15,000 Flee Homes in Targeted Areas

By KRISHAN FRANCIS

COLOMBO, Sri Lanka - The military unleashed airstrikes and mortar attacks Wednesday at areas controlled by Tamil Tiger insurgents, who said that 15,000 people had fled the second day of violence sparked by a suspected rebel suicide bombing.

European monitors said the violence was violating a 4-year-old cease-fire.

The rebels said at least 12 people in its territory had been killed in attacks that the military launched Tuesday in the first major military assault since the cease-fire. The government attacks escalated Wednesday after the government said rebel mortar fire at targets including a navy ship had killed three civilians and injured 11 people, including two sailors.

The government pledged continued action against the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, which it held responsible after a Tuesday suicide bombing by a woman pretending to be pregnant badly injured the government's top military commander.

"There will be coordinated retaliation by the armed forces if the LTTE continues to attack," government spokesman Keheliya Rambukwella told a news conference. "We are taking maximum efforts to strengthen national security."

Ulf Henricsson, the Swedish head of the Nordic cease-fire monitoring team, said that, while Sri Lanka's truce is still valid, "it is on paper. What is going on is a serious violation of the agreement."

A top military analyst said that Sri Lanka could return to full-scale warfare if the government's military operation expands and results in substantial rebel casualties.

More:http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory?id=1892272

India Flexes Its Muscles With First Foreign Military Base

Guardian

April 26, 2006

Nick Paton Walsh in Moscow

India is to open its first overseas military base this year in the impoverished central Asian country of Tajikistan - a testament to its emerging status on the world stage.

The Indian air force will station up to two squadrons of MiG-29s at the refurbished former Soviet airbase of Farkhor more than 60 miles from the Tajik capital of Dushanbe, Jane's Defence Weekly said, citing defence officials. A control tower is already in place, Indian media reported.

The Indian army had a military hospital there from 1997 to 2001, where it treated Northern Alliance guerrillas fighting the Taliban in Afghanistan.

The 12 Russian built MiG-29s will be staffed by about 40 personnel and use two aircraft hangars, Jane's said. The base's third hangar will be used by the Tajik air force which is also being trained by the Indians.

Tajik officials would not comment on the reports. Igor Sattorov, spokesman for the Tajik foreign ministry, said: "I can neither deny nor confirm this information. Let's be cautious about this."

India will become the fourth economic power to compete for influence in central Asia. Russia has a military base in Tajikistan and one in neighbouring Kyrgyzstan. The US also has a base in Kyrgyzstan and Germany has a base at Termez, in southern Uzbekistan, both of which are used to assist operations in Afghanistan.

India has stepped up its activity in central Asia, eager to gain access to its gas supplies. Manmohan Singh, the Indian prime minister, is expected to meet with Uzbekistan's president, Islam Karimov, during a visit to the capital, Tashkent, which began yesterday.

Mr Karimov has become an international pariah since his troops shot dead hundreds of protesters in the southern town of Andijan a year ago, and Mr Singh's critics will seize upon the visit as an unprincipled play for oil. India currently needs 1.9m barrels of oil a day, but this is forecast to rise to 4m by 2010.

Guardian Unlimited © Guardian Newspapers Limited 2006

Mukhtar Mai Termed A Powerful Voice For Pakistan

The Dawn

By Our Correspondent

WASHINGTON, April 25: “Mukhtar Mai is a very important and powerful voice for Pakistan,” said Karen Hughes, the Bush administration’s chief image strategist.

Ms Hughes, State Department’s Under-Secretary for Public Diplomacy and Public Affairs, was one of dozens of US officials and citizens who came to the Pakistan Embassy on Monday night to pay homage to the rape victim who overcame her ordeal to fight for other underprivileged women.

“I agree with her message of ending oppression with education and believe strongly in her mission of educating women, particularly young girls,” said Ms Hughes.

Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian affairs Richard Boucher wished her “all success in the kind of work she is doing and the kind of changes she is trying to bring about for the Pakistani society.”

But no praise could have been sweater for Ms Mukhtar than her presence at the Pakistan Embassy which had not only closed its doors on her but also had tried to prevent her first visit in October last year.

“But much has changed since then,” noted T. Kumar, Amnesty International’s advocacy director for Asia-Pacific region. The Sri Lankan human rights campaigner was one of 100 protesters who demonstrated outside the embassy last summer against Pakistan’s decision to prevent Ms Mukhtar from visiting the US. “We are happy that the embassy is now welcoming her,” he said.

Ms Mukhtar is now in Washington to receive an award from Senator Hillary Clinton at the prestigious Kennedy Centre on Thursday for her struggle to raise the status of women in rural Pakistan. Instituted by a group called Vital Voices, this would be the second award Mukhtar will receive in the US. In October, she received a Woman of the Year award from Glamour magazine.

Impressed by Ms Mukhtar’s determination, Ms Hughes called her a “symbol of courage around the world” who had shown that she had “a great deal of courage” to share her experience in the hope that she might help others.

Chairman Senate Ahmad Mian Soomro, Prime Minister’s economic adviser Dr Salman Shah and economic adviser to the Finance Ministry, Asfhaq Hasan Khan also attended the reception.

Tigers Vow Reprisals As Sri Lanka Launches New Strikes

Reuters

April 26, 2006

COLOMBO - Sri Lanka's military launched air and artillery strikes on Tamil Tiger areas in the island's northeast on Wednesday, a day after a suicide bomb attack blamed on the rebels shattered an already fragile ceasefire.

Military spokesman Brigadier Prasad Samarasinghe said the latest strikes came after the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) fired on naval patrol craft off the eastern port of Trincomalee for a second day.

The rebels said they would retaliate if the government continued the attacks, launched after a suspected Tiger suicide bomb in the capital killed nine and wounded the army commander.

"It is like a war situation in Trincomalee. If the attacks continue, the LTTE will be forced to take military defensive action," S. Puleedevan, head of the Tigers' peace secretariat, told Reuters.

The army said it had closed borders with rebel territory. Some aid workers helping rebuild after the 2004 tsunami said they were evacuating from the north and east. United Nations agencies stayed where they were, but canceled transport.

Tiger northeastern political leader S. Elilan said shelling had ceased late in the morning. At least 10 bodies had been recovered and 25 people were injured, he said. The Tigers say many people have fled their homes into the jungle.

The military said the Tigers fired mortars into nearby government areas, killing three civilians and wounding 13, including two navy sailors. The government said the strikes would last as long as the Tigers kept up attacks.

They were the first official military action since a 2002 ceasefire halted the two-decades-old civil war and raised hopes of a lasting peace. They followed a string of suspected Tiger attacks on the military and ethnic riots against Tamils.

Colombo's stock market ended down more than four percent on Wednesday as investors feared a return to full-scale war.

"CALLOUS ATTACKS"

Swedish Major-General Ulf Henricsson, who heads the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission that oversees the truce, said if air strikes continued, peace talks would become difficult. The worst-case scenario was a return to war, he said.

"I think the parties are not prepared for that," he said. "And if they were, it would be devastating for the people of Sri Lanka and for their own military capabilities."

More than 100 people had already died in the bloodiest two weeks since the truce even before a female suicide bomber, disguised to look pregnant, blew herself up at Colombo's high-security army headquarters.

The Tigers on Tuesday denied responsibility for the suicide bomb attack.

But a suspected Tiger front group, the High Security Zone Residents' Liberation Force (HSZRLF), took responsibility.

"HSZRLF feels that the LTTE is merely wasting time by maintaining a ceasefire," it said in a fax.

The Tigers indefinitely postponed a second round of peace talks that were to take place last week in Geneva, accusing the government of obstructing the transport of eastern rebel leaders to a pre-talks meeting. The Tigers say they are examining new government proposals.

But diplomats say they were looking for an excuse to pull out, angry the government had not reined in a renegade group of ex-rebels, the Karuna group, which has been attacking the mainstream Tigers in the east.

Some fear the Tigers might be planning a return to the battlefield to win their goal of a separate Tamil homeland.

Mediator Norway, due to host a weekend meeting of Sri Lanka's other key donors the European Union, United States and Japan, said both sides wanted talks to happen.

"I think the fact we have seen an escalation of violence makes ... going to Geneva much more complicated," Norwegian envoy Jon Hanssen-Bauer told Reuters. "It's an atmosphere now that is not very conducive for the two parties to make concessions."


(Additional reporting by Lindsay Beck and Ranga Sirilal in COLOMBO and Joe Ariyaratnam in JAFFNA)

Sri Lanka Peace On The Ropes

BBC News Tamil Service

April 26, 2006

By Ethirajan Anbarasan

Yet another suicide attack in the Sri Lankan capital and the government has responded by unleashing air strikes on Tamil rebel positions in the east. So, is this war?

Ground realities clearly suggest that the 2002 ceasefire agreement exists only on paper and unless the cycle of violence is stopped it will be difficult to prevent the country from sliding into full-scale war.

But to the relief of many, in an address to the nation on Tuesday, Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapakse expressed hope that peace process could still be saved while at the same time issuing a stern warning to the Tamil Tiger rebels.

The rebels, meanwhile, have not reacted so far to the reportedly intense shelling by the Sri Lankan air force, navy and army in the eastern Trincomalee region. It is a matter of time before they respond.

Only a few days ago, there was a glimmer of hope that the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) and the government would participate in a second round of peace talks in Geneva.

In fact, Norwegian peace envoy Jon Hanssen Bauer is still in Colombo hoping to persuade the rebels to attend the talks.

Tit-for-tat attacks

Citing attacks on the security forces, the government had earlier refused to give military helicopters to transport LTTE's eastern commanders from the east to the north to meet their leaders.

The Tamil rebel leadership, which insists on discussing the ground situation with eastern leaders before the second round of Geneva peace talks, was not prepared to fly its commanders by private helicopter. Officially, the 2002 ceasefire agreement still holds. But more than 200 soldiers, rebels and civilians have been killed in various violent incidents since last November. Rebels and government forces have been accusing each other of carrying out tit-for-tat attacks.

Analysts blame both parties for the escalation of violence and also for not keeping up the promises made in Geneva in February this year. Attacks on security forces did not subside and the rebels accused the government of not disarming paramilitary groups in the eastern region.

'Wake-up call'

But no-one expected such a daring attack on army chief Lt-Gen Sarath Fonseka in the capital, where life was relatively normal despite the trouble in the Tamil-dominated north and east.

"Maybe the Tiger rebels wanted to give a wake-up call to the government," retired Sri Lankan vice Air Marshal Harry Goonathilake told the BBC. He says the only way forward is to implement the promises made in Geneva talks.

At the moment, Norwegian mediators seem to be struggling to bring both parties together. Also, the international ceasefire monitors say their small team of 60 members cannot cope with the escalating violent incidents.

With events spiralling out of control, it looks like Norwegian facilitation alone cannot save the faltering peace process now.

"Massive co-ordinated international effort is needed to contain the situation. Norway alone cannot do that," says Sri Lankan analyst D B S Jeyaraj.

Though for the moment both parties insist that they will abide by the ceasefire agreement it looks like ongoing events may influence their decisions and outcomes.

Stolen Away

Time Magazine

Sunday, Apr. 23, 2006

As criminal gangs run amuck in Iraq, hundreds of girls have gone missing. Are they being sold for sex?

By BRIAN BENNETT/BAGHDAD

The man on the phone with the 14-year-old Iraqi girl called himself Sa'ad. He was calling long distance from Dubai and telling her wonderful things about the place. He was also about to buy her. Safah, the teenager, was well aware of the impending transaction. In the weeks after she was kidnapped and imprisoned in a dark house in Baghdad's middle-class Karada district, Safah heard her captors haggling with Sa'ad over her price. It was finally settled at $10,000. Staring at a floor strewn with empty whiskey bottles, the orphan listened as Sa'ad described the life awaiting her: a beautiful home, expensive clothes, parties with pop stars. Why, she'd be joining two other very happy teenage Iraqi girls living with Sa'ad in his harem. Safah knew that she was running out of time. A fake passport with her photo and assumed name had already been forged for her. But even if she escaped, she had no family who would take her in. She was even likely to end up in prison. What was she to do?

Safah is part of a seldom-discussed aspect of the epidemic of kidnappings in Iraq: sex trafficking. No one knows how many young women have been kidnapped and sold since the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003. The Organization for Women's Freedom in Iraq, based in Baghdad, estimates from anecdotal evidence that more than 2,000 Iraqi women have gone missing in that period. A Western official in Baghdad who monitors the status of women in Iraq thinks that figure may be inflated but admits that sex trafficking, virtually nonexistent under Saddam, has become a serious issue. The collapse of law and order and the absence of a stable government have allowed criminal gangs, alongside terrorists, to run amuck. Meanwhile, some aid workers say, bureaucrats in the ministries have either paralyzed with red tape or frozen the assets of charities that might have provided refuge for these girls. As a result, sex trafficking has been allowed to fester unchecked.

More:http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1186558,00.html

Sri Lanka Hits Tigers After Suicide Blast Kills 9

Reuters

Tue Apr 25, 2006 4:56 PM BST

By Peter Apps

COLOMBO (Reuters) - Sri Lanka's military attacked Tamil Tiger rebel targets on Tuesday in retaliation after a suicide attack on the army's headquarters that killed nine, as the island's truce seemed to be unravelling.

Earlier in the day, a suspected Black Tiger suicide bomber pretending to be pregnant blew herself up in an attack on the army's commander, bringing violence that had been confined to the north and east to the capital.

The government said strikes on the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) did not mean an immediate return to a two-decade civil war but it was the first official military action on the rebels since a 2002 truce.

"The LTTE did something this afternoon that clearly breached the cease-fire," head of the government peace secretariat, Palitha Kohona, told Reuters. "The government had to act. We still hope that the LTTE will decide to come to talks."

President Mahinda Rajapakse was due to address the nation at 1600 GMT.

About 110 people have died in the bloodiest two weeks since the Norwegian-brokered cease-fire halted the civil war that killed more than 64,000, with the rebels still keen to win their goal of a Tamil homeland in the island's north and east.

Peace talks seen as a way to halt the violence were supposed to take place in Geneva this week but talks arrangements became deadlocked on over how to transport a group of eastern rebel commanders to attend a pre-talks meeting.

But the rebels' real complaint is what they say is government complicity with a breakaway rebel group in the east attacking the mainstream Tigers.

FIGHTER JETS

The Tiger political leader in the northeastern district of Trincomalee, S.S. Elilan, told Reuters that his territory had been hit by bombs from Israeli-built Kfir fighter jets and shelling. He said he had no estimate on casualties.

With mediator Norway still trying to secure talks in Switzerland amid spiralling ethnic violence and tension, the unarmed Nordic mission monitoring the battered truce had called for restraint. They confirmed the military assault.

"Air strikes are confirmed, bombing and gunfire from Trincomalee naval base is confirmed," Swedish Major-General Ulf Henricsson, head of the Nordic mission monitoring the 2002 cease-fire, told Reuters.

"My assessment -- which is also my hope -- is that this is a limited retaliatory strike for today's attack."

Both the Tiger attack and the government retaliation were acts of war, said Jehan Perera, head of think-tank the National Peace Council.

"Our hope is that it will stop but escalatory dynamics are very difficult to stop once they are put in motion," he said.

The Tigers would not comment on whether they were behind the suicide bombing but they have a long history of launching such attacks.

The military said Army Commander Sarath Fonseka, a decorated combat veteran who said the truce was too soft on the rebels, had been undergoing surgery but was out of danger after the blast.

The army said eight people -- in addition to the bomber -- both civilian and military, had been killed and 27 wounded inside army headquarters, one of the most secure places in the country. Army photos showed bodies covered with plastic sheeting, and body parts strewn around.

The Colombo All-Share Index fell more than 3 percent after the blast, before recovering a little to close down 2.33 percent.

"Tomorrow there will be more panic selling and people will get emotional," said stockbroker Harsha Fernando before the government retaliation. "Twenty years of war have brought us nothing. We have to talk."

(Additional reporting by Lindsay Beck and Peter Apps)

World Bank Accused Over Malaria

BBC

April 25, 2006

The World Bank has been accused of publishing false accounts and wasting money on ineffective medicines in its malaria treatment programme. A Lancet paper claims the bank faked figures, boosting the success of its malaria projects, and reneged on a pledge to invest $300-500m in Africa.

It also claims the bank funded obsolete treatments - against expert advice.

The bank has denied the allegations and says it is investing $500m to $1bn (£280m-£560m) over the next five years.

But it also admits it is not easy, and sometimes "not even possible", to know exactly how much input from each donor goes into a specific activity.

The claims against the bank, made by 13 international public health experts headed by Amir Attaran, of Canada's University of Ottawa, centre on the financial pledges the fund made to fight malaria on the African continent and a programme in India.

The researchers accused the bank of failing to reverse historic "neglect" of the battle against malaria and of hyping their spending on that battle in Africa.

The paper highlights a promise to lend Africa $300m-$500m for the battle against malaria.

It goes onto say that the bank appeared to backtrack, pointing to accounts that say it had earmarked $100-150m for malaria-control worldwide between 2000 and 2005.

In a rebuttal article, the bank's Jean-Louis Sarbib, says that between 2006 and 2008 $500m in expected commitments for malaria control would be spent in Africa and Asia.

The Lancet study also alleges that the World Bank hyped the results of its malaria control programme in India.

'Statistical errors'

They quote the bank saying that it reduced deaths from malaria in the Indian states of Gujarat by 58%, Maharashtra by 98% and Rajasthan by 79%.

The authors say they doubted malaria could be reduced so markedly in such a short time and requested and obtained official statistics from India's own national malaria programme.

According to India's Directorate of National Vector Borne Disease Control Programme, deaths from malaria rose in all three states in the 2002-3 period in question.

"Because we were refused access to the original data sources, we cannot discern the cause of the bank's many statistical errors and particularly whether those errors arise from unintentional mistakes or from intentional data falsification or fabrication," the authors say.

But the World Bank says in its rebuttal, that the study authors were using "aggregated state-level data" that "do not tell the whole story".

"We were able to see clear measurable improvements in districts where the bank-supported malaria control project was implemented," the bank said.

The study also claims: "The bank's secrecy and technical errors combine dangerously when we look at malaria treatment.

"Our investigations suggest that the bank wasted money and lives on ineffective medicines."

It accuses the bank of supplying India with an anti-malarial drug, called chloroquine, at a cost of $1.8m, which it says is unsuitable for the type of malaria seen there and against World Health Organisation guidelines.

Context

However, the bank argues that the drug was only to be used in the areas where chloroquine is still effective alongside more up-to-date treatments.

It says: "On the basis of available information, India stood to get good value for money by spending scarce resources wisely in accordance with local realities."

Dr Attaran and his colleagues go on to call for the World Bank to hand over the $1bn due to be invested in malaria programmes worldwide to a separate body, saying the bank's role should be reserved only for funding.

But the bank says: "World Bank Group President, Paul Wolfowitz, has put the full weight of his leadership behind the Bank's renewed commitment to malaria, with a strong emphasis on results."

A Lancet editorial says malaria accounts for 10% of Africa's disease burden and leads to $12bn in lost productivity every year.

If the World Bank is serious about being judged on results as it claims, the 2000 target of halving malaria deaths in Africa by 2010 is an "excellent opportunity for cost-effective action," it says.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/health/4939810.stm


Published: 2006/04/24 22:50:49 GMT

© BBC MMVI

This Is No Rah-Rah Revolt

Guardian

April 25, 2006

Nepalese have lost their fear of repression and are making a genuine, old-fashioned revolution

Tariq Ali

There is something refreshingly old-fashioned taking place in the Himalayan kingdom of Nepal: a genuine revolution. In recognition of this, the US has told citizens except for "essential diplomats" to leave the country, usually a good sign. Since April 6, Nepal has been paralysed by a general strike called by the political parties and backed by Maoist guerrillas. Hundreds of thousands are out on the streets - several have been shot dead and more than 200 wounded. A curfew is in force and the army has been given shoot-to-kill orders.
But the people have lost their fear and it is this that makes them invincible. If a single platoon refuses to obey orders, the Bastille will fall and the palace will be stormed. Another crowned head will fall very soon. A caretaker government will organise free elections to a constituent assembly, and this will determine the future shape of the country.

The lawyers, journalists, students and the poor demonstrating in Kathmandu also know that if they are massacred, the armed guerrillas who control 80% of the countryside will take the country. This is not one of those carefully orchestrated "orange" affairs with its mass-produced placards, rah-rah gals and giant PR firms to aid media coverage, so loved by the "international community". Nor does the turbulence have anything to do with religion. What is taking place in Nepal is different: it is the culmination of decades of social, cultural and economic oppression. This is an old story. Nepal's upper-caste Hindu rulers have institutionalised ancient customs to preserve their own privileges. Only last year was the custom of locking up menstruating women in cowsheds declared illegal.

The Nepalese monarchy, established more than two centuries ago, has held the country in an iron grip, usually by entering into alliances with dominant powers - Britain, the US and, lately, India - and keeping them supplied with cheap mercenaries. It is a two-way trade and ever since the declaration of the "war on terror", the corrupt and brutal royal apparatus has been supplied with weaponry by its friends: 20,000 M-16 rifles from Washington, 20,000 rifles from Delhi and 100 helicopters from London. Meanwhile, half the country's 28 million people have no access to electricity or running water, let alone healthcare and education, according to the UN.

In 2005, King Gyanendra suspended all civil liberties and outlawed politics. To deal with a problem that was essentially structural, but which in the global context of neoliberalism could not be solved through state intervention, he decided on mass repression: physical attacks on the poor, concerted attempts to stamp out dissident political organisations and blanket social repression. The chronicle of shootings, beatings, imprisonments, purges and provocations is staggering. The sheer ferocity of his assault took the tiny middle class by surprise and isolated the politicians.

Will the triumvirate - the US, the EU and the UN security council - try to keep the king in power? If it does, it will have to add Kathmandu to a growing list of disasters. Recent newspaper editorials indicate that the west fears the disease may spread to neighbouring India. A top-level summit between the Naxalites and civil servants after the defeat of the BJP government revealed a remarkably pragmatic Maoist leadership: all it wanted was for the government to implement the constitution and pledges contained in successive Congress manifestos.

What the uprising in Nepal reveals is that while democracy is being hollowed out in the west, it means more than regular elections to many people in the other continents. The Nepalese want a republic and an end to the systemic poverty that breeds violence and to achieve these moderate demands they are making a revolution.

· Tariq Ali is an editor of New Left Review
tariq.ali3@btinternet.com

Guardian Unlimited © Guardian Newspapers Limited 2006

As Zimbabwe's Economy Collapses, A Tiny Few Make Huge Profits

Guardian

April 25, 2006

In the second of our dispatches from inside Robert Mugabe's tightly controlled country, the Guardian discovers one of the world's most surreal and successful stock exchanges

Rory Carroll in Harare

At one end of the stock exchange a man writes numbers on a whiteboard with a blue marker; at the other brokers tap sums into large calculators. Shares are bought and sold in crisp, verbal transactions; the deals noted on ledgers filled with carbon paper. In the corner a man with a laptop, the only computer in the room, keeps a record of the trading.

It resembles a scene from another era, but this is one of the world's best-performing stock markets. In January alone it doubled in value and the bull run is set to continue. Welcome to the surreal world of Zimbabwean economics.

Inside this exchange, on the fourth floor of one of the less dilapidated buildings on Nkwame Nkrumah Avenue, serious profits are being made while outside, businesses are collapsing, driving millions of people into penury.

Zimbabwe has the fastest shrinking economy outside a war zone, with unemployment pushing 80% and inflation a rampant 913%. But amid the meltdown a small minority - some legitimate investors, others crooks - is thriving. "Where some see crisis others see opportunity," said Jonathan Waters, an economist and commentator.

The winners in today's Zimbabwe are an eclectic group of share traders, currency dealers, estate agents, small-time entrepreneurs and cronies of Robert Mugabe's government, which is widely blamed for ruining what was once of Africa's most developed economies.

The stock exchange, comprising 16 broking firms trading in the shares of 75 companies, including Barclays, British American Tobacco and First Mutual, is perhaps the most incongruous success.

Distorted market

"It's quite embarrassing because the exchange is supposed to mirror the reality of the economy," said Emmanuel Munyukwi, the institution's chief executive. "We have benefited from the distortion of the market."

The stock market has stayed ahead of inflation and is worth $3bn (£1.68bn) according to the official exchange rate - a dramatic surge. Under the more realistic black market rate it is worth $1.5bn, still an impressive performance in a crumbling economy.

Mr Munyukwi said negative interest rates and inflation had caused a stampede for assets, which had driven share prices to record highs, even in real terms. "Pension funds and other institutional investors have made a killing." He admitted that there was some insider trading but said most deals were legitimate. "The early bird catches the worm. You come in now and reap the benefit."

However, the profits are on paper and could yet vanish because currency controls make it difficult to take money out of the country.

Analysts say the stock market boom masks the fact that thousands of businesses have gone bankrupt, slashing exports and halving the size of the economy since 2000.

"Those who are flourishing are finding ways to make money that is not productive," one western diplomat said. "Buying and selling in this way does nothing for the economy. The economy is being hollowed out."

President Mugabe, 82, who has led the former British colony since independence in 1980, has blamed the crisis on successive droughts which hit commercial agriculture, and western powers who "punished" Zimbabwe for taking over white-owned farms.

Printing money

Critics say the fault lies with his Zanu-PF government, which gave land to loot-minded cronies and under-capitalised black peasants, frightened away investors and then printed money to cover budget deficits - triggering inflation which some say is close to 2,000%, more than double the official rate.

The impact on living standards has been catastrophic. About 4.6 million people rely on food aid; children miss school because their parents cannot pay fees and hospitals lack basic equipment and medicine - handing a death sentence to those with Aids and other treatable diseases.

Yet for some these are good times. "Property prices are steadily picking up," said Justin Machibaya, the director of Homelux, a Harare-based estate agency. A top-of-the-range house with four bedrooms, a swimming pool and maybe a tennis court cost $160,000, up from $100,000 a few years ago, he said.

Institutional investors and individuals from South Africa and Britain were eyeing property in the belief that prices would soar if and when Mr Mugabe stepped down and investors regained confidence. "Everybody is waiting in anticipation," Mr Machibaya said.

Some have already swooped, notably the controversial British tycoon Nicholas van Hoogstraten. In addition to the stock market, he has invested heavily in property and mines. Earlier this year he denied reports that he had given Mr Mugabe $10m but made no secret of his financial engagement. "I'm probably the sole supporter, up in the UK, of this country and I think I'm the sole major investor in this country," he said.

Chinese and Indian firms have also snapped up mines and land at bargain prices, filling a gap left by western investors skittish about the risks. Some Zimbabweans welcome this investment as a lifeline, others condemn it as exploitation of a country's desperation.

Perhaps the biggest winners are senior Zanu-PF officials who have helped themselves to the best farms and assets. Three cabinet ministers, Joseph Made, Christopher Mushowe and Didymus Mutasa, have been accused of looting Kondozi farm, a once thriving vegetable concern in Manicaland, which is now in ruins. Harare city council reportedly plans to buy 329 sedans and pick-up trucks for its managers and staff, while the capital's state-appointed mayor, Sekesai Makwavarara, has been accused of buying a plush house from the council for just 5% of its market value. The reserve bank governor, Gideon Gono, is said to be building a huge mansion.

Some members of the elite are not ashamed to flaunt their wealth. Senior army and government officials knock back doubles of Chivas Regal whisky at the Big Mug, a Harare pub, running up tabs of the equivalent of several hundred US dollars in the space of an hour.

With a soft drink costing Z$90,000 it takes bricks of notes to buy anything, spawning a boom in demand for electronic note counters. Sales of the Chinese-made devices are the one bright spot for the electronics industry. "Everybody is buying them - the university, the council, hotels," said Botho Chigwedere, a salesman at Arvee Wholesalers. "We've almost sold out."

Guardian Unlimited © Guardian Newspapers Limited 2006

The Centrality Of A Paramilitary In The Present Slide To War in Sri Lanka

Daily Mirror, Sri Lanka

Opinion

April 25, 2006

Jehan Perera

The peace process, as it has evolved since 2002, is near its terminus point. The end stage began during the Presidential election of 2005. During the election campaign, President Mahinda Rajapaksa and his nationalist allies sought to distance themselves from the fundamentals of the existing peace process. They spoke about getting rid of the Norwegian facilitators and about a new ceasefire agreement that would replace the existing one. Upon winning the presidency, however, the government adopted a more reasonable approach to the peace process. But it is evident that the change of heart is not complete.

The inability of the Norwegian special envoy to the peace process, Jon Hanssen Bauer to obtain a second meeting with the LTTE’s political wing leader S P Thamilselvan was the latest blow to the peace process. Mr Hanssen Bauer had taken a revised proposal of the government for the consideration of the LTTE. The LTTE’s snub was perhaps more directed to the government than to the Norwegian special envoy. However, his inability to meet with either President Mahinda Rajapaksa or with LTTE leader Velupillai Pirapaharan was an even worse setback. It demonstrates a lack of commitment on the part of these two leaders to do everything in their power to avert a human and national catastrophe.

While the top leaders of the government and LTTE strived to show that they were above the fray, at the ground level an unsustainable situation has arisen. There are multiple incidents of violence being reported from the north east that could soon lead to full scale fighting. Most of those who are dying are government soldiers who are being ambushed on a regular basis.

The latest development is the killing of Sinhalese civilians. The justification that the LTTE would be seeking to give is that any retaliation against Tamil civilians will be met with their own reprisal killings. There have been incidents of mob violence and military retaliation against Tamil civilians after LTTE attacks against the Sri Lankan military and homeguards.

Looming large in the disaster that is befalling the country is one of the LTTE’s former commanders, Colonel Karuna Amman. Only now are the fearful repercussions of the great split that occurred within the LTTE in March 2004 becoming apparent. When the split occurred it seemed to herald a major weakening of the LTTE. Karuna challenged the two most important claims of the LTTE, that it was the sole representative of the Tamil people, and that the north and east were one. Claiming that he had 6000 cadre backing him, Karuna claimed the east for his group. At that time there were scenes of open public support for Karuna in the east.

Karuna’s revival

In the months that followed, however, the eastern rebellion seemed to fade away and the LTTE seemed to have re-established the status quo. The LTTE warned the government that the Karuna split was an internal one that they would deal with and they would brook no interference. The breakaway Karuna group sought to invoke the safeguards of the Ceasefire Agreement to preserve themselves and be an entity separate from the LTTE. But neither the government nor Norwegian facilitators stepped into secure a negotiated settlement between the LTTE and its rebel faction in terms of the Ceasefire Agreement. An LTTE military attack outside of the limits established by the Ceasefire Agreement saw top Karuna cadres killed, in the east and in safehouses in Colombo.

But throughout the past two years the Karuna group has been active in the east, and now it is said to be strong as well. Independent sources report that hundreds of Karuna cadres are present in the Batticaloa district and a few hundred are also present in the Trincomalee district. The LTTE’s dilemma is that the longer they wait, the stronger the Karuna group is likely to get, both militarily and politically. Earlier this month they opened a political office in Batticaloa.

The LTTE’s interest would be to eliminate the Karuna group as a military and political force as soon as possible. Unlike in April 2004, however, it is not possible for the LTTE to launch a military offensive against the Karuna group. They are no longer protecting territory as they are in the government-controlled areas and operate as a guerilla force from there.

Therefore, for the LTTE to eliminate the Karuna group they need to get the government to perform this task. Or else they need to get the Ceasefire Agreement abrogated so that they can engage in hot pursuit within government-controlled areas.

At the first round of Geneva talks in February, the LTTE made no secret that their sole concern was to have the government disarm and eliminate the Karuna group. But unfortunately, the discussions on the Karuna group at the Geneva talks were not based on truth but on falsehood. The LTTE insisted that the government was providing assistance to the Karuna group, which the government denied.

Acknowledge truth

Tragically, there is a growing impression that those at the highest levels of the government are preparing themselves for an inevitable war.

Certainly the LTTE is giving them every reason for resorting to war. But the sufferings of war will be immense to the people who will be its first victims. Even now it is the poor villagers of the north east who are suffering the brunt of the undeclared war that is expanding its tentacles. The moment that large numbers of people become the victims of war, they will withdraw their support to the leaders who led them into war. Obviously the government will be more vulnerable on this score as it has to face elections sooner or later, unlike the LTTE.

A wise political leadership would do everything in its power to avoid a war, whether it takes the form of a high intensity or low intensity war. This does not mean destroying the Karuna group or acceding to the LTTE’s agenda. The break up of the LTTE in March 2004 and the existence of an eastern Tamil identity are realities that the government has no reason to try and reverse.

So far the LTTE has sought to ignore the existence of the Karuna group as an autonomous entity, and instead refers to them as paramilitaries who are creatures of the Sri Lankan military. But the LTTE cannot reasonably expect the government to join it in suppressing this eastern Tamil identity and the group that stands for it, merely because this is disadvantageous to the LTTE and to its cause.

On the other hand, the government needs to stop denying its relationship with the Karuna group.

The international monitors and other independent observers have pointed to the existence of Karuna group camps in government-controlled areas. They have also seen Karuna cadre in uniform and with arms in close proximity to military camps. The government needs to consider formalising its relationship with the Karuna group, perhaps by entering into a bilateral agreement with them that outlaws the use of force, just as the Ceasefire Agreement with the LTTE does. These are realities that the government should be prepared to discuss with the LTTE instead of denying them.

But the main question today is whether the peace process as it has existed can survive. The lack of commitment of the government and LTTE leaderships to the peace process is manifest in their reluctance to meet with the Norwegian special envoy.

The peace process that commenced in 2002 was based on the primacy of the government and LTTE, with the Norwegian facilitators playing a subordinate role of acting at their behest, and not doing anything that they did not approve. This system can only work on the basis of the genuine will and commitment of the government and LTTE to compromise with each other and reach a settlement. This system is no longer working because the basic premise of mutual commitment is lacking.

Therefore, the likely scenario at the present time is a period of war before a new Ceasefire Agreement or new peace process can be obtained. Or there needs to be a change of heart, prior to the tragedy of war.

A new peace process would require the inclusion of more parties, including the Muslims and also the Karuna group, and the elevation of the facilitator to the status of a mediator and even arbitrator. This requires a change of heart or of ground realities. Let us hope it is a change of heart.