The Endgame
The Economist
Apr 20th 2006 KATHMANDU
A messy abdication is another compromise?
ASKED whether King Gyanendra consults astrologers the government spokesman gave an answer with which many would sympathise. “I do too,” he said. “If you were in Nepal for quite a while, so would you.”
After more than two weeks of anti-government protests, few conventional observers feel qualified to peer far into Nepal's future. Ten demonstrators have been killed at rallies across the country. As The Economist went to press, Kathmandu was under an 18-hour “shoot-to-kill” curfew, with at least three protesters shot dead on April 20th. The city is short of fuel and fresh food thanks to an opposition-led strike. Crucially, the civil service has joined the protests. Twenty-five officials were arrested at the interior ministry this week, and staff at the national bank are on strike. The entire banking sector is now closed, and cash in short supply.
Many people would also like to know where the king gets his political advice. As the crisis has mounted he has been slow to respond. Initially he stayed at a provincial palace because, rumour has it, a partial eclipse made it inauspicious to return to the capital. Yet it appears the gravity of the situation is slowly dawning on him, though he refuses to refer to the protests. This week he released five leading opposition politicians from government custody. Further attempts at reconciliation may follow, but finding a deal will not be easy. Gyanendra's exaggerated sense of royal dignity is only one obstacle.
Even the opposition parties have been surprised by the depth of republican sentiment revealed during the protests. More than one opposition leader has privately explained that he will be lynched if the parties fudge a deal with the palace as they have in the past. That creates a problem for the leaders, who demand a new constitution but not necessarily a republic. Party planners fear that rapid progress to a republic could allow their loose allies, the powerful Maoist rebels, to fill the vacuum.
Opinion is divided over the likelihood of the government falling. The American ambassador infuriated the Nepali government this week when he predicted a messy abdication with the king clinging to the wheels of a departing helicopter. Others point out that the army, upon which the regime is built, remains loyal.
India is concerned. This week its special envoy, Karan Singh, arrived to urge compromise: “The last thing we would want is for Nepal to dissolve into chaos because India's vital security interests are involved.” He was well chosen to deal with the king. His wife is a Nepali aristocrat and his father was the last Maharaja of Kashmir. The message he carries is not known but is likely to be uncomfortable for Gyanendra. India once supported constitutional monarchy and democracy in Nepal. Now it speaks only of democracy.
Apr 20th 2006 KATHMANDU
A messy abdication is another compromise?
ASKED whether King Gyanendra consults astrologers the government spokesman gave an answer with which many would sympathise. “I do too,” he said. “If you were in Nepal for quite a while, so would you.”
After more than two weeks of anti-government protests, few conventional observers feel qualified to peer far into Nepal's future. Ten demonstrators have been killed at rallies across the country. As The Economist went to press, Kathmandu was under an 18-hour “shoot-to-kill” curfew, with at least three protesters shot dead on April 20th. The city is short of fuel and fresh food thanks to an opposition-led strike. Crucially, the civil service has joined the protests. Twenty-five officials were arrested at the interior ministry this week, and staff at the national bank are on strike. The entire banking sector is now closed, and cash in short supply.
Many people would also like to know where the king gets his political advice. As the crisis has mounted he has been slow to respond. Initially he stayed at a provincial palace because, rumour has it, a partial eclipse made it inauspicious to return to the capital. Yet it appears the gravity of the situation is slowly dawning on him, though he refuses to refer to the protests. This week he released five leading opposition politicians from government custody. Further attempts at reconciliation may follow, but finding a deal will not be easy. Gyanendra's exaggerated sense of royal dignity is only one obstacle.
Even the opposition parties have been surprised by the depth of republican sentiment revealed during the protests. More than one opposition leader has privately explained that he will be lynched if the parties fudge a deal with the palace as they have in the past. That creates a problem for the leaders, who demand a new constitution but not necessarily a republic. Party planners fear that rapid progress to a republic could allow their loose allies, the powerful Maoist rebels, to fill the vacuum.
Opinion is divided over the likelihood of the government falling. The American ambassador infuriated the Nepali government this week when he predicted a messy abdication with the king clinging to the wheels of a departing helicopter. Others point out that the army, upon which the regime is built, remains loyal.
India is concerned. This week its special envoy, Karan Singh, arrived to urge compromise: “The last thing we would want is for Nepal to dissolve into chaos because India's vital security interests are involved.” He was well chosen to deal with the king. His wife is a Nepali aristocrat and his father was the last Maharaja of Kashmir. The message he carries is not known but is likely to be uncomfortable for Gyanendra. India once supported constitutional monarchy and democracy in Nepal. Now it speaks only of democracy.
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