Pakistan's Power Shift

Guardian

May 3, 2006

Simon Tisdall

Inside Peshawar's cloistered mosques, high in the rugged passes of the North-West Frontier, and deep in the upholstered opposition salons of Lahore, there is growing consensus it is time for Pervez Musharraf to go. But who will replace the general-president, Pakistan's unelected leader since 1999, and how his departure can be achieved are questions so far lacking answers - meaning that, as often in the past, an eventual shift in power is likely to be messy.

As the country moves cautiously towards promised elections next year, the two main political parties, currently in opposition, doubt whether free and fair polls are possible under the present leadership. They are demanding a pre-election caretaker government and a truly independent electoral commission. Some activists claim the fix is already in.

The parties' exiled leaders, Benazir Bhutto of the Pakistan People's party (PPP) and Nawaz Sharif of the Pakistan Muslim League, both former prime ministers, have temporarily joined forces in an "alliance for the restoration of democracy".

Meeting in London last week, they vowed to reverse constitutional changes made by Gen Musharraf, which strengthened presidential powers, and jointly called for an end to military interference in politics.

But the two leaders are old enemies who both worked closely with the military in the past. There are suspicions that one or the other may break ranks and cut a deal, if that is their surest route back to power.

Sherry Rahman, a senior PPP official, said the focus should remain on Gen Musharraf who was determined to stay in office come what may - and would not balk at rigging the polls. "He does whatever he wants, he changes the rules, changes the constitution. It's a tinpot dictatorship. He's just desperate to retain power."

Yet the PPP, despite unmatched popularity, faced a looming dilemma, Ms Rahman said. "Benazir will come back and she will be arrested.

"Either we boycott the elections and lose or we participate and legitimise a sham."

Najam Sethi, editor-in-chief of the Daily Times in Lahore, sketched a less dramatic scenario. It was possible Ms Bhutto would agree to bide her time, positioning herself as natural successor to Gen Musharraf. In return she would be freed from the threat of arrest and, in effect, politically rehabilitated.

Gen Musharraf told the Guardian last week that he personally had no objection to Ms Bhutto's return. Yet old and new hands say rapidly rising economic, social and security pressures, threatening to overwhelm any future government, mean such familiar manoeuvring by Pakistan's political elites no longer works.

"If Musharraf is still in government, the elections will mean nothing," said Qazi Hussein Ahmad, the influential leader of Jamaat-e-Islami, a key force within an alliance of religious parties that previously backed Gen Musharraf. "If he won't go, then there will be national protests. We will take all measures short of violence."

Mubashir Hasan, formerly finance minister under Ms Bhutto's father, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, said Pakistan's basic problem was not its democratic deficit or even pervasive poverty. It was the lack of justice and respect shown by the ruling class, political and military, to the mass of the people.

"This country is becoming ungovernable. There is increasing crime, increasing violent political dissent, increasing inter-provincial tension, and increasing religious and sectarian antagonism," Dr Hasan said. Until the military relinquished its grip on public life and the US and Britain stopped conniving in its rule, nothing would change for the better.

"For the military the election is just something to show to the world," he said. "But if there is evidence the election is rigged, it could be like Thailand or Ukraine."

An already splintering Pakistan would risk major political upheaval.

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